By Wolfgang von Erffa
To die for Afghanistan? Why? Is there a meaning or justification in the military engagement, in the death of soldiers of NATO and increasing number of Afghans? Since 2006 there were many thousands airstrikes of NATO. “Collateral damages” caused the death of a high number of innocent Afghan civilians. Does the purpose justify the means? Is a goal pursued which would be necessary for the West and for NATO?
Is it even possible - applying realistic parameters for an assessment – to reach the objectives? Is the justification for the military campaign, the claim that there are conspiracies by sinister forces at the feet of the Hindukush to overthrow the constitutional order of Western democracies not very far fetched?
“All Pashtuns, from Kandahar to Attock
are openly or secretly united in the defense of their honour.
Sweeter is the death than such a life
Which is endured without honour…”
These famous verses were written by the Pashtun poet Khusal Khan Khattack in the 18th century and describe the successful defense of the Afghans against the invading armies of the Moghul Emperor of India .
Based on Pashtunwali, the code of honour, fighting has since centuries been considered the only conceivable response if foreigners entered and stayed in Afghanistan too long and without a proper invitation. The country which has never been a colony, has shown strength as a nation only in the moments when its honour and survival seemed to be threatened by foreign intruders.
A former Afghan Minister expressed his concern that USA and NATO had been – by engaging themselves in the present military campaign in Afghanistan - led in to a trap. The same trap which in 1979 the USA helped to build for the Soviet Union, called “Bear Trap” at that time.
Nine years later, in 1989, Lieutnant-General Boris Gromow, Commander of the Soviet Forces in Afghanistan, announced after crossing the bridge over the Amu-Darja:” No single Soviet soldier will remain in Afghanistan. Our nine-year long presence has now come to an end”
Some Afghan intellectuals believe that the initial American-British military engagement in 2001 against Al Qaida in Afghanistan was only a pretext of the USA to come and stay forever .
Immediately after the entry of the victorious Northern Alliance into Kabul in late 2001 and the exodus of Taliban from the city, many inhabitants praised the military intervention of the USA as a “gift of God” But already four days later people asked: “But they are still here. When will they finally leave?”
The approved period of four days has been extended to almost ten years.
“Déjà vu?” Yes, we ought to say, history does repeat itself, as in a Great Game, which ultimately is not a game, but utterly tragic and sad. The Soviet Union stayed 9 years, and was dissolved two years later. Is there something like an Afghan illness to which invading powers can easily succumb?
Basic patterns of Afghanistan´s structures
The switches for the future of Afghanistan, on which the security of the entire region relies, have – after the military campaign of the USA and Great Britain - not been thrown in the most appropriate way. The basic patterns which are decisive for Afghanistan s structures, which remain in many ways medieval, have not been taken sufficiently into consideration in the process of the envisaged establishment of peace. They have in the meantime reemerged.
It is of utmost importance that power in Afghanistan always had a local and regional, and never a national basis, with exception of the time of the rule of the “Iron Emir” Abdul Rahman Khan (1880-1901). All attempts to overcome the power and subpower of tribes and subtribes and to end the regional fragmentation of political power in Afghanistan have been unsuccessful.
The present day situation of Afghanistan reminds us in many aspects to the time before 1747, year of the constitution of Afghanistan as a sovereign state, when the possession of its territories frequently changed between the Moghul Empire of India and Persia, until finally Ahmad Sha Durrani took power.
It never proved to be possible to exercise power in Afghanistan against the will of the Pashtun majority (at least 42%; some sources give 50-60%). England had to face this fact in three Afghan wars, between 1838 and the beginning of the 20th century. Presently, the USA and its allies equally face it.
Boost for Afghanistans fierce desire for freedom from
intrusion of neighbouring states
Has the principle that Afghanistan should be in the position to decide by itself on its affairs been sufficiently respected?
Is not the increasing strength of the Taleban and of an ample proportion of the population based on resentments caused by precisely this deficiency? It is quite likely that neighbouring states which took influence in the past, and whose interests are closely linked to Afghanistan´s fate, have instigated such resentments.
It appears to be very plausible that interests of Afghanistan´s neighbours will reemerge more and more in the time to come. Pakistan, Saudi-Arabia and Iran on one side, the Central Asian states Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan on the other side, and a state in close vicinity, India, in its antagonism to Pakistan, will remain important players in respect to exercising influence in Afghanistan.
A durable peace in Afghanistan is only conceivable, if the meddling in Afghanistan by neighbouring states will cease. The uninterrupted intrusion by supporting Mujaheddin parties and “war lords” with weapons, munition and fuel has proved to be fateful.
Which formula for a solution?
The most important prerequisites for a solution are likely to be a government in Kabul, which is respected and which can extend its authority granted by the free elections in 2004 to the entire country.
Success in the following areas could give positive signals in this respect:
Visible success of the government in all fields of governance, fighting corruption, gaining distance in respect to unpopular warlords (whose support by the USA seemed in the past to be necessary and a lesser evil), success in the fight against production and trade of narcotic drugs and reconciliation in the increasing conflicts between Shia and Sunnis.
The understanding between different religious faiths, between Sunnis and Shia appears to be very important. For this purpose a consensus between the protecting powers, who exercise and give protection, Saudi-Arabia for the Sunnis and Iran for the Shia seems indispensable. Only in this way old conflicts which led in the past to bloodshed, can be contained in a long-term perspective.
Chances for a non-military solution
NATO will be in the position to reach certain military objectives with its next offensives. Certain positions will be gained, others lost and regained.
Finally it will not be possible to influence the situation on a medium and long-term basis by military strikes. The specific conditions and archaic structures of Afghanistan will dominate, as this has always been the case, in respect to foreign intruders, who never were able to stay for a longtime. It should be noted that besides Thailand, Afghanistan is the only country in Asia, which never became colony.
In the meantime, the Taleban can move in large parts of the country in the South and in the East like a fish in the water. Due to losses among the civilian population caused by collateral damages following air raids of the USA and its allies anti-Western emotions became very strong.
It would be necessary to win hearts and minds. If the USA and their allies, which fought in Afghanistan in the beginning, continue to dominate and have the last word in any policy move concerning Afghanistan, the West, which is caught itself in the “Bear Trap”, which had once been laid out for the Soviet Union, will hardly anymore be able to be successful in this respect. It is likely that the attitude would be more positive, if the USA and their allies, as mentioned above, would completely withdraw and leave the necessary task of maintaining peace to troops from other nations, against which no strong animosities exist, but which are considered neutral or friendly. Islamic and non-aligned states could assume a special role. The same would apply for other states which are not and have not been engaged in military actions. Also soldiers from countries, whose civilian reconstruction work has been considered useful and who are generally met with sympathy, could eventually - if Afghanistan so desires - be increasingly involved into work for securing peace.
The necessity of non-military measures in the global coalition against terror should be stressed. This will be the only way to reach and secure the set objectives. For this purpose it will be, of course, indispensable to permanently contain the strong influence of Al Qaeda of Bin Laden and his Wahhabi-Salafi followers, who vigorously push for an expansion of their version of faith.
The present military strategy of the West provokes the opposite effect of what is intended, creating solidarity of the Afghan people with those, who fight against foreign intruders.
What are the remedies?
It is not unconceivable that Saudi Arabia, facing herself nowadays problems due to terror attacks caused by Al Qaeda, which had maintained, however, diplomatic relations with the Taleban Regime until 2001, would be prepared to engage itself in a constructive way.
It is likely that by means of a constructive engagement of Saudi Arabia certain parts of Taleban could be won.
A country which suffered so tremendously in the past, deserves the help of the West as friend and partner. For this purpose, first and foremost a deeper insight, consequently a “metanoia”, a rethinking of military objectives and strategies is required. There must not be any more collateral damages, no more suffering of civilians, no further trauma caused by thousands of military actions and attacks by war planes of the NATO Air-Force. Otherwise Afghan children, who now witness the thunderous noise of those planes above them in the sky, will be haunted for the coming decades from the impact of this trauma. Nobody will be able to ever convince them that USA and NATO came as liberators and friends.
Without a radical change of attitude we are today at the beginning of the end, at the end of esteem and sympathy for the West in Afghanistan. It seems very likely that then the forces which the West wants to fight, will finally dominate. The consequences will be unpredictable, in Asia as in Europe.
The great Muslim poet of the Indian Subcontinent, Muhammad Iqbal, stressed the central importance of Afghanistan:
“Asia is a living body, and Afghanistan its heart.
In the ruin of the heart lies the ruin of the body.
So long as the heart is free, the body remains free.
If not, it becomes a straw adrift in the wind.”
The design of the future of Afghanistan is one of the great tasks, also for European policy. The search for the best formula for a political solution continues. It will not be a solution forced by the sword, but rather a solution by understanding and reconciliation finding a common denominator, based on the small basis of common views and concepts, which do exist, in spite of all the antagonism by the conflicting parties.
In future negotiations to settle the conflict, special care should be taken to avoid the terms "winner" or "looser". If there is no infringement against the notion of honour of the Afghans, this will help to reach and maintain a durable peace.
The author has been involved with Afghanistan since more than 30 years in different capacities - inter alia -for United Nations in 1990 and 1991 and later at the German Federal Foreign Office.
The article only represents his personal opinion, not the view of the government.
